The strategic partnership between the United States and India has become a cornerstone of global geopolitics, with deepening ties in defense, technology, and economic cooperation. For years, both nations have been inching closer to a landmark agreement that could redefine their economic relationship. However, the prospect of a second Trump presidency casts a long shadow over these negotiations, with his potential hardline stance on the BRICS bloc emerging as a significant and unforeseen threat to the long-awaited US-India trade deal.
This evolving dynamic presents a complex challenge. While the current administration has championed the Indo-Pacific strategy, a future “America First” policy could prioritize transactional wins over long-term alliances, placing India’s multi-aligned foreign policy directly in the crosshairs and jeopardizing decades of diplomatic progress.
The Current Foundation: A Strong but Incomplete Partnership
Under successive administrations, US-India relations have flourished. The partnership is built on shared democratic values and a mutual interest in ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific. This alignment has led to significant achievements:
- The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad): A strategic forum including the US, India, Japan, and Australia, aimed at countering regional instability.
- Defense Cooperation: Major agreements like the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) have enhanced military interoperability.
- Growing Trade Volume: Bilateral trade in goods and services exceeded $191 billion in 2022, making the US India’s largest trading partner.
Despite this progress, a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement remains the elusive prize. Negotiations have historically stalled over issues like agricultural tariffs, intellectual property rights, and market access. Yet, a shared goal of diversifying supply chains away from China has given new momentum to finalizing a US-India trade deal, making it more critical than ever.
Trump’s “America First” Doctrine and the BRICS Challenge
A potential second Trump administration would likely see a return to the “America First” doctrine that defined his first term. This policy is characterized by skepticism toward multilateral institutions, a preference for bilateral negotiations where the US has greater leverage, and the aggressive use of tariffs as a tool of statecraft. Alliances are often viewed through a transactional lens—what does the US get out of it right now?
This is where the BRICS bloc—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and now expanded to include other nations like Iran and the UAE—becomes a major flashpoint. From a Trumpian perspective, BRICS could be viewed not as a forum for economic cooperation but as a rival bloc actively working to undermine American influence, particularly through its discussions on de-dollarization.
India’s membership in this group, while part of its long-standing policy of “strategic autonomy,” could be interpreted as a betrayal by a president who often demands unwavering loyalty from partners. This perception could have dire consequences for diplomatic and economic relations.
Why Trump’s BRICS Approach Threatens the US-India Trade Deal
The collision of Trump’s potential foreign policy with India’s geopolitical balancing act creates several specific risks that could directly scuttle any progress on a bilateral trade agreement. A comprehensive US-India trade deal requires immense political will and trust, both of which would be undermined.
India’s Delicate Balancing Act Under Pressure
India masterfully navigates a complex world by maintaining membership in competing alliances. It is a key player in the US-led Quad while also being a founding member of the China-centric Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS. This strategy allows New Delhi to pursue its own interests without being tied to any single power’s agenda.
However, a Trump administration may view this nuanced position as duplicitous. An “if you’re not with us, you’re against us” mentality could force India into an impossible choice. Any pressure on India to distance itself from BRICS would be seen as an infringement on its sovereignty, souring the atmosphere for sensitive trade negotiations.
The Looming Threat of Punitive Tariffs
President Trump’s primary tool for expressing displeasure is economic: tariffs. During his first term, he imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum from India and revoked its status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which had allowed certain Indian goods to enter the US duty-free.
If he perceives India as aligning too closely with BRICS rivals, a new and more aggressive round of tariffs is a distinct possibility. This would not only dismantle current trade flows but would also make the successful negotiation of a future US-India trade deal an impossibility. Instead of reducing trade barriers, the two countries would be engaged in a retaliatory trade war.
Erosion of Diplomatic Trust and Predictability
Complex trade agreements are built on a foundation of trust and predictable policy. Negotiators must believe that the commitments made today will be honored tomorrow. A volatile and transactional approach from Washington would erode this trust.
Indian officials would be hesitant to make significant concessions on sensitive issues if they fear the deal could be arbitrarily abandoned or renegotiated by a mercurial US leader. The stability required to finalize a historic US-India trade deal would evaporate, replaced by uncertainty and risk aversion.
What’s at Stake for the US Economy?
The failure to secure this agreement isn’t just a loss for India; it would be a significant missed opportunity for the United States. The benefits of a robust economic partnership are clear:
- Supply Chain Diversification: A strong trade relationship with India is the most viable strategy for American companies looking to “de-risk” their supply chains from over-reliance on China.
- Access to a Massive Market: India’s growing middle class represents one of the largest consumer markets in the world, offering immense opportunities for American exporters of goods, services, and agricultural products.
- Geostrategic Advantage: An economically intertwined India is a more reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific, reinforcing the strategic goals of the Quad and checking regional aggression.
Jeopardizing the US-India trade deal over a rigid view of the BRICS alliance would be a strategic own-goal, potentially harming American businesses and slowing efforts to build a more resilient global supply chain.
Navigating the Path Forward
While the future remains uncertain, the importance of the US-India relationship transcends any single administration. The current geopolitical landscape, defined by great power competition, makes the partnership more vital than ever. A completed US-India trade deal would serve as a powerful symbol of their commitment and provide a durable economic anchor for the relationship.
Ultimately, the path to a successful trade agreement lies in recognizing the mutual benefits that far outweigh any short-term disagreements. For the US, this means understanding and respecting India’s strategic autonomy. For India, it means continuing to demonstrate its value as a reliable economic and security partner. The coming months will be critical in determining whether this landmark deal can withstand the shifting political winds or if it will become another casualty of a turbulent global order.
“`